US July 4 gas prices are the highest since 2022
For c-store operators the holiday cuts two ways. US July 4 gas prices are the highest since 2022, Axios reported, which puts the busiest driving weekend of the year on drivers already paying up. Fuel volume over the holiday could hold, but thinner wallets at the pump tend to pull spend out of the box, and inside sales carry most of the store's margin.
Hormuz reopens
About 10 million barrels of Saudi crude have cleared the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, per Reuters shipping data, with Aramco sending at least five supertankers from Ras Tanura toward Asia. That points to supply normalizing after the Iran scare that spiked crude in April. Oil is already easing as Iran negotiations continue, and one analyst told WSBT that gasoline follows crude down with a lag.
For a US jobber, the read is straightforward. If the strait stays open and the barrels keep moving, wholesale could soften into mid-July. The lag is the catch. Retail street prices trail the board by a week or two, so the pump relief drivers want may not show up before the Fourth. Watch your rack, not the headlines.
Biofuel plants lag
Trump's biofuel targets are running into the plants themselves, Reuters reported, with US production capacity lagging the goals set for it. That matters to anyone blending or hauling renewable diesel and ethanol, because a mandate the industry can't physically meet turns into either waivers or tight RIN supply, and both move your blend economics.
There are pockets going the other way. A Hamilton biodiesel facility is being saved from permanent closure, and year-round E15 sales keep grinding forward at retail. But the gap between the policy number and what the tanks can actually make is the thing to price in. If capacity stays short of the target, RIN costs could firm and squeeze margins on every blended gallon you sell.
California's gas tax
California drivers now pay the highest gas tax in the country, per Men's Journal. For operators outside the state that is a competitive data point more than an operating problem, but it sets the ceiling on where taxed retail can go, and it keeps California a bellwether for how far a state can push fuel taxes before demand bends. If you run stores near a lower-tax border, that spread is real customer traffic.
Worth a glance overseas only because it touches supply: Nigeria's NNPC booked $3.15 billion in May, down from $3.62 billion in April, even as crude and condensate output rose to 1.73 million bpd. Lower prices, not lower barrels, drove the drop. It is a small confirmation that the April war premium has bled off the global board.
What to watch
Whether Saudi barrels keep clearing Hormuz at this pace, and whether crude holds its slide while Iran talks continue. If both hold, wholesale gasoline could ease further, though the retail lag means your street price may not reflect it until after the holiday weekend.
On biofuels, watch for any signal on RFS volumes or waivers as the plant-capacity gap gets attention. Short capacity against a firm mandate could lift RIN costs and pressure blend margins into the back half of summer.