US refiners run flat out as Rystad cuts Russia's 2026 crude forecast to 8.95 million bpd
American refiners are running at or near full capacity right now, and the reason sits half a world away. Global fuel supply is tightening as Russian barrels come off the market, and most of what domestic suppliers make is finding a buyer. For jobbers and haulers, that means less slack in the system and thinner cushion if anything hiccups at a regional refinery.
The Russian barrel
Rystad Energy cut its forecast for Russian crude output to an average of 8.95 million barrels a day in 2026, down further in the back half of the year, before falling to around 8.6 million bpd in 2027. The cause is a year of tighter sanctions and repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and ports. Russian regions have reintroduced fuel rationing after a renewed round of refinery attacks, which tells you the damage is hitting their domestic supply too.
Why it matters to a US operator: Russian crude and product that gets knocked offline has to be made up somewhere, and that pull tightens the global balance that sets your replacement cost. When US refiners are already maxed out, there is no domestic spare capacity to absorb a shock. Crude could stay firm as long as those strikes continue, and product margins may hold with it.
Capacity, no cushion
Running at capacity is good for crack-spread economics as long as it lasts. Refiners capture wide margins when they can sell everything they make. The catch is what happens on the downside. A plant that trips offline in a maxed-out system may not get covered by a competitor, because few refiners have room to spare. That keeps supply tight, and it is worth watching if you buy on the spot market.
California SB 966
California lawmakers are advancing Senate Bill 966, a union-backed measure that would write existing oil refinery safety rules into state law. The bill comes as state regulators move to revise those rules under a legal settlement with the oil lobby, and it locks in worker protections designed to prevent fires and explosions. Nick Plurkowski, a United Steelworkers local leader in the Bay Area, framed it around the right to refuse work "that could lead to your death." Industry opposes it. West Coast buyers should track it, because anything that changes how California refineries operate can move PADD 5 supply and pump prices.
What to watch
Watch whether Ukrainian strikes keep cutting Russian throughput and how far the 2027 forecast slips. An unplanned US refinery outage while the system runs full is the other near-term risk. SB 966's progress through Sacramento is worth following too.