Brent above $100 for a second day as the Iran war disrupts Hormuz shipping; EIA forecasts record 13.8 million b/d US crude in 2026

Brent crude closed above $100 a barrel for a second straight day on Sept. 10, back to its pre-summer level, as the war with Iran keeps crude from moving cleanly through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher crude feeds straight into rack prices, so fuel buyers are paying the risk premium now. Wall Street took it badly. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow dropped 296 points, and the Nasdaq lost 0.8% on the same inflation worry.

Hormuz shipping

Oil tanker rates hit record highs. Traders and operators are routing around the Strait of Hormuz because moving cargoes through the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman during the US-Iran tanker war is too risky. The crude supply is there. Getting it onto a ship and out is the problem. Saudi Arabia has started sending cargoes north through the Red Sea and out of Egypt to skip the chokepoint, which costs more and takes longer. Those freight costs land in the delivered price of barrels that have to travel.

US inventories

Crude stocks are not the pressure point right now. Commercial inventories fell 400,000 barrels in the week ending Sept. 4, to 424.1 million barrels, right on the five-year average for this time of year. API reported a draw the day before. A small draw on an average-sized cushion tells you the strain is in moving oil rather than finding it.

Record 2026 output

EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts US crude production averaging 13.8 million b/d in 2026, a record, past the 13.7 million set in 2025. Output already ran 13.7 million in the first half, up about 300,000 b/d, or 2%, from a year earlier. The growth is concentrated in the Permian across Texas and New Mexico and in the federal Gulf of America. More domestic barrels could ease the pull from Hormuz over time, though a forecast for next year's average does nothing for the rack this week.

Russian refinery

One of Russia's largest refineries stopped operating after a Ukrainian drone strike. It tightens global refined supply at the margin and keeps a bid under product cracks, though the direct pull on US diesel and gasoline looks small.

What to watch

Whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open. Crude could ease if traffic normalizes and the tanker war cools, and it may stay bid if Saudi keeps routing around the Gulf. Watch next week's EIA inventory report for whether the small draw turns into a trend, and watch product cracks if more refining capacity goes offline.