Ethanol saved E10 drivers an average 38 cents a gallon during the Iran conflict, RFA study finds
A new study for the Renewable Fuels Association puts hard numbers on something jobbers felt at the rack this summer: blending ethanol into the gasoline pool held pump prices down while crude ran hot. The study pegs the average E10 cost advantage at 38 cents a gallon during the Iran conflict, the stretch that pushed oil above $100 and dragged European fuel prices up with it. Ethanol trades cheaper than the gasoline it displaces, so the more you blend, the more you cushion the retail number.
The blend wall keeps moving up. EIA data shows the average ethanol content of US gasoline topped 11% for the second straight month in June, and the 12-month average blend rate set a record at 10.58%. E15 expansion is what pushes those figures up, a fraction of a point at a time.
Ethanol prices
US ethanol slipped 2.6% after its mid-August run, so the spot market is cooling off even as blend economics stay favorable. For a blender the math is simple: cheaper ethanol widens the margin against gasoline and gives you more reason to stretch every gallon you buy.
Rex American
Rex American Resources reported record net income per share for its fiscal second quarter on September 2, and said the expansion at its One Earth Energy plant is still on track to finish this year. A producer posting record earnings while adding capacity points to a healthy operating side, even with thin spot prices.
45Z credit
Two pieces of the clean fuel production credit landed in the last few weeks. The IRS issued guidance August 8 with the 2026 emission rate tables and rules on manure-derived fuels and regenerative ag practices. Then the DOE put out an updated 45ZCF-GREET model on September 8, its second refresh since June. The model sets the emissions rate that decides how large a producer's credit is, so every revision moves real money for renewable diesel and ethanol plants. Watch how the new tables score corn ethanol against the June version.
UK duty on US HVO
The UK Trade Remedies Authority ruled September 10 that hydrotreated vegetable oil from the US was subsidized and hurt UK producers, and recommended a duty of at least £258 per tonne. That closes off a chunk of export demand for US HVO makers, which could push more renewable diesel volume back toward the domestic market.
What to watch
Whether the updated GREET model raises or lowers corn-ethanol credit values, and whether soft spot ethanol prices hold the blend advantage into the fall driving season.