Diesel cracks top $100 a barrel to a record as tanker rates and EIA crude forecasts climb
Diesel cracks pushed above $100 a barrel to a record high, and that is the number wholesale buyers should be watching. The benchmark 3-2-1 crack barely moved last week, up $0.52 to $66.36 a barrel, but that flat headline hides how far the diesel piece ran underneath it.
Diesel at the rack
Diesel is taking the biggest share of the refining barrel right now. When the distillate crack runs this far ahead of the gasoline side, refiners tilt yield toward diesel and rack diesel prices climb faster than crude does. For a marketer that means wider daily swings at the rack and thinner margins on any fixed-price contract you are holding.
Branded and unbranded both feel it. Unbranded supply can tighten first, because refiners and majors tend to hold barrels for their own contract customers before they sell to the open rack. RBN's School of Energy session in Houston made the same point about 2026: small shifts in supply and demand are driving big margin swings, and the last week is what that looks like at the terminal.
Tanker rates
Oil tanker rates hit record highs as shipping risk in and out of the Middle East climbed. Traders and tanker operators are routing around the Strait of Hormuz and taking longer, costlier trips because of the US-Iran tanker fight in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The crude itself is available. Moving it is the problem, and freight is now a bigger slice of landed cost that shows up in replacement cost when you refill the terminal.
EIA forecast
The EIA raised its oil price forecasts, citing Middle East supply disruptions. Higher crude feeds straight into your rack cost, on top of the diesel crack and the freight. If you are pricing forward supply for customers, a raised federal forecast plus record tanker rates is a reason to build more room into the number rather than quote thin and hope.
What to watch
Whether the diesel crack holds above $100 or slips back toward the 3-2-1 as refiners answer the pull. If it holds, expect rack diesel to keep leading gasoline and unbranded allocation to stay the first pressure point. Watch the Strait of Hormuz, since any real closure or a fresh tanker seizure could add to freight again and firm up landed crude. And watch the EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook for whether it pushes the price forecast higher still.