Trump defers the federal diesel tax and opens highways to dyed diesel as prices top $6
President Trump signed an executive order late Monday deferring the federal diesel tax through the end of the year and opening highway use of red-dyed diesel, the low-tax fuel normally restricted to farms and off-road equipment. No interest, no penalties, the White House said. For jobbers and haulers, that is a direct cut in landed cost on every gallon of on-road diesel moved between now and January 1.
The national average is above $6 a gallon. Daily diesel spending across the country runs around $700 million, so a quarter off the federal line per gallon is real money for any fleet. Trump signed the order in Grand Island, Nebraska, four weeks before the midterms, and told two Republican governors it should help their races. The relief to fleets holds regardless of the timing.
Dyed diesel is chemically the same fuel. The red dye marks it as tax-exempt so the IRS can spot on-road use. Opening highways to it lets operators run the cheaper product legally for the rest of the year. Watch how fast terminals and retailers can actually supply dyed fuel for highway sale, because the plumbing was not built for it.
Where the diesel went
Diesel is tight because refining is tight. Crude is not the problem. Goldman Sachs told CNBC it expects diesel to stay high through 2027 as refineries struggle to meet demand. Trump said the same in plainer terms on Truth Social: Hormuz is no longer the main driver, refineries are. He pointed to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and US refinery closures in Democratic-led states including California.
The mechanism checks out. Crude is moving. The bottleneck is turning it into distillate.
Gulf supply back, Hormuz not
Crude exports out of the Persian Gulf hit 81% of pre-war levels last month, per Kpler and Vortexa data cited by Reuters. That excludes Iran, whose exports the firms put at zero. Saudi Arabia drove the recovery, lifting exports from 4.2 million barrels a day in August to about 6.6 million in September.
Standard Chartered puts Gulf crude and condensate exports near 16.5 million barrels a day in September, roughly back to pre-war volumes. Only 60% of that crossed the Strait of Hormuz, against 83% before the war. The rest is going out through bypass routes like Fujairah and the Red Sea. Supply is recovering. It just is not taking the old path.
C-store AI
Par Technology polled 1,000 consumers and found 80% have used some AI-powered tech, most often at a self-checkout kiosk. Only one in five reported no exposure at all. Asked what would make them switch stores, 33% named faster checkout and 18% named personalized loyalty rewards. 57% said they would trust AI to make automatic recommendations. For operators weighing kiosk and loyalty spend, that is a read on what customers actually reward.
What to watch
Whether the dyed-diesel order moves rack and pump prices before year-end or just changes who collects the tax. Whether refiners can close the distillate gap Goldman flagged. And whether Gulf barrels keep returning while Hormuz traffic stays below normal.