'Can't Wait to Heat My House in Connecticut This Winter': Odd Lots Host as Heating Oil Hits $4.79 a Gallon, Up 113%
Heating oil hit $4.79 a gallon, up 113%, and the Odd Lots host summed up the mood for the Northeast with one line about looking forward to heating his house in Connecticut this winter. Jobbers and haulers working the oil-heat belt are watching that number closely. Delivered-fuel customers lock in budgets off prices like this, and a figure that has more than doubled changes what a winter contract looks like before the first cold snap.
The quote was sarcastic. Oil heat still runs a big share of homes across New England, and when the wholesale number climbs like this, the call volume to dealers goes up with it. Customers want to know whether to lock in a price now or take their chances on the spot market. Dealers have to answer without knowing where the price settles.
For the delivered-fuel operator, a 113% move is a working-capital problem first. The cost to fill a truck roughly doubles, which ties up more cash per load and raises the stakes on customers who pay late or default mid-season. Credit lines that covered last winter's fills may not stretch as far this time.
Propane to India
US propane exports to India rose, per the EIA. That matters to domestic propane supply because every barrel moving onto a VLGC bound for Asia is a barrel not sitting in a US terminal when retail demand peaks.
US propane output has stayed high enough to cover both exports and domestic use, so strong foreign demand has not meant a shortage at home. But heating season is when the domestic draw hits hardest, and rising export flows into a cold stretch can tighten regional basis and push retail propane up in the places furthest from supply.
For a propane marketer in the Midwest or Northeast, the EIA export figure is a tell about how much competition there is for the molecules before winter inventory builds finish. It does not set your street price by itself. It does shape how much cushion is in the system if a cold run pulls demand forward.
What to watch
Whether heating oil holds near $4.79 or eases as the full heating-season supply picture fills in. Watch EIA's weekly propane inventory numbers against the five-year range, and watch whether export flows to India keep climbing into the coldest weeks. For dealers, the open question is how many customers pre-buy at these levels versus betting the spot market softens, and how much credit exposure that leaves on the books by February.