Diesel stays high despite Trump's supply push; EIA cuts 2026 renewable diesel forecast to 230,000 b/d
Trump's moves to free up diesel supply have not pulled prices down, Reuters reports. For carriers, that's the number that matters. Fuel surcharges track a diesel index, so as long as the pump stays high, haulers keep passing the cost to shippers and shippers keep pushing back on rates. More barrels on paper have not reached the fuel desk yet.
Dyed diesel relief
The Tennessee Trucking Association and fuel providers are asking for clarity on dyed diesel relief, according to the Tennessee Lookout. Dyed diesel is the off-road, tax-exempt stuff. When a state or federal waiver lets it run on-highway during a supply crunch, fleets need to know exactly what's allowed before they put it in a truck, because the penalty for getting it wrong lands on the operator. Right now the rules are vague enough that carriers are hesitating, and hesitation at the rack costs time.
School bus budgets
Jefferson County Public Schools is feeling the diesel bill, the Courier-Journal reports. School districts buy fuel on fixed annual budgets, so a price run mid-year comes straight out of money meant for something else. It's the same math a private fleet runs, except the district can't raise a surcharge. Watch for more public fleets to come up short this fall.
The Hormuz question
CNN is asking the question a lot of operators are asking: if the Strait of Hormuz is open, why are gas and diesel still expensive? The short version is that open shipping lanes don't automatically mean cheap product. Crude flow is only one input into the diesel price; refinery economics and demand weigh on it too. Prices could ease if those loosen, but an open strait by itself won't do it.
Renewable diesel
EIA cut its 2026 renewable diesel production forecast to 230,000 barrels a day, per BioEnergy Times. That's a trim to expected supply from a segment that has been one of the few sources of new diesel-pool volume. Less renewable diesel means the conventional barrel carries more of the load, which does nothing to help the tight market haulers are paying into.
The tax-cut bill
A bill to cut gasoline and diesel taxes is overdue and likely to fail, the Tri-State Alert reports. For operators hoping for relief at the state level, that's a door closing. Tax cuts are the fastest way to knock cents off the pump, and this one looks dead.
What to watch
Whether Trump's supply moves show up as lower rack prices in coming weeks, how Tennessee resolves the dyed diesel rules, and whether the EIA forecast cut signals a softer renewable diesel year ahead.