Trump orders team to weigh diesel export ban as on-highway diesel hits $6.53
President Trump said Tuesday he has already told his team to consider a ban on diesel exports, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said officials are studying whether a full or partial ban would work without wrecking U.S. refining. Trump said a decision would come "fast, one way or the other." For haulers, this is the number that matters: the national on-highway diesel average is about $6.53 a gallon this week, a new high and roughly $3 more than a year ago. California is running well above that.
The read from the cab is simple. Fuel-surcharge tables reset off that national average, so carriers are billing more per mile and still watching margins thin because the surcharge lags the pump. An export ban is being floated as relief. Whether it delivers any is the open question.
The case against a ban
Energy Workforce is urging policymakers to reject the idea, warning that cutting off exports could force Gulf Coast refiners to trim production rather than flood the domestic market. Those refineries run to sell abroad; take away the buyers and some barrels stop getting made. The group wants temporary tariff relief on critical energy components instead.
Morgan Stanley added a wrinkle that should give truckers pause. A diesel export ban could raise U.S. gasoline prices, the bank said, because refinery economics don't split cleanly between the two fuels. Pull one lever and the other moves. So a policy sold as pump relief for diesel buyers may raise costs for people filling a gas tank.
Charter rates at $1M a day
Trafigura is buying ships instead of renting them. The trader launched Volare Shipping with six very large crude carriers and eight more on order, backed by a $500 million capital raise and a planned Oslo listing, for a fleet of 14 VLCCs. The trigger is cost. Disruptions from the Iran war have pushed tanker charter rates to as much as $1 million a day, and controlling your own hulls starts to look cheaper than paying that.
Canadian crude skips California
Those freight rates are already redrawing routes. Canadian crude headed to Asia is now sailing straight from Vancouver rather than stopping off Southern California to transfer onto a supertanker. Last month none of it made the usual lightering stop in the Pacific Area zone. In June 2024, 78% did. High shipping costs killed the detour, and the trade war gives producers a reason to route around U.S. waters entirely.
What to watch
Watch whether a ban actually comes, and how soon. Watch the national diesel average and California's spread above it, and whether gasoline ticks up if refiners start pricing in lost export demand.