Wholesale gasoline is at its 30-day low of $2.77 while pump prices are still mid-range

RBOB gasoline is at the very bottom of its 30-day range this morning, down 11.4% over the month. WTI crude is down there with it, also at the floor of its range after falling 28.4% in 30 days. For anyone pricing against wholesale, the cost side of gasoline has bottomed out for now.

Retail has not come down as far. The U.S. average pump price is $3.964, off only 10.7% and still at 61% of its 30-day range. Wholesale is at its floor while retail sits in the middle of its month, so pump margin is running wide right now for whoever holds street price steady. The 3:2:1 crack spread says the same about the barrel, 54.48 now and wider by 8.94 over the month, so refiners are getting paid on the crack too.

Diesel is the exception. The retail-to-wholesale diesel spread tightened by 0.375 to 1.336, so street margin on diesel is thinner than it was a month ago even though product cost has dropped. ULSD futures are down 15.4% and near the low end of their range at 12%, while the retail diesel average holds at $4.668 and 55% of its range. The retail number has been slow to give ground, and the spread math shows the cushion narrowing.

With RBOB and WTI both parked at the bottom of their ranges, the thing to watch is a bounce. If wholesale gasoline turns back up off this floor, the wide pump margin could close quickly, so it may pay to know your replacement cost before you reprice.