WTI is at the bottom of its 30-day range at $68.66, down 28.5% in a month

WTI crude settled at $68.66, the floor of its 30-day range and down 28.5% over the past month. Brent is right there with it, sitting at the 1% mark of its own range. RBOB gasoline futures are $2.77, which is their 30-day low as well. The wholesale side of the barrel has come down hard, and it has done it fast.

The pump has not caught up. U.S. retail gasoline is still $3.964, at the 61% mark of its 30-day range, and retail diesel is $4.668 at the 55% mark. For a gasoline retailer that gap is margin right now, and it is the kind of gap that tends to close as street prices follow wholesale down.

Diesel reads differently. The retail-wholesale diesel spread has tightened over the past 30 days to $1.336, so the money between the rack and the pump on diesel is thinner than it was a month ago, even with crude falling. ULSD futures are near the low end of their range at the 12% mark, but the retail price has held up better, so the squeeze is on the wholesale-to-retail leg. Refiners, for their part, are doing well: the 3:2:1 crack spread widened by 8.98 over the month to 54.52, which means more of each barrel is landing with the refiner than it was in early June.

If crude holds near this floor, retail gasoline could keep easing toward the wholesale drop over the next week or two, so a marketer pricing street gas may want to plan for that pull rather than the current cushion.