Trump clears Russian diesel for open market as Ukraine strikes Ryazan refinery again
President Trump has announced a deal with Vladimir Putin to let Russian diesel sell on the open market without sanctions, a reversal of current US policy aimed at pulling down pump and rack diesel prices before the midterms. For jobbers and haulers, that is the headline that touches your cost of goods. The question is whether any of those barrels actually show up, and when.
The Russian diesel deal
The move undoes the sanctions regime Trump himself signed into law on Sept. 18, 2026. Critics in the Chicago Tribune and elsewhere argue it defies US law and may not move retail prices much anyway. They have a point on timing: sanctioned barrels do not reroute overnight, and traders have to trust the paperwork before they lift.
Working against the deal is the other half of the story. Ukraine hit Rosneft's Ryazan refinery again overnight, one of Russia's biggest, and it burned all night without going out. Trump called the renewed strikes a "disgrace" and said they are "making the world oil price higher." Russia claims it repelled 644 drones. Every refinery Ukraine knocks offline tightens the diesel and fuel oil balance that the Putin deal is supposed to loosen. If those two forces cancel out, US diesel stays expensive into winter. Milwaukee-area school districts are already reporting high fuel bills.
Crude and the Hormuz premium
WTI was set for a weekly gain, trading at $97.40, with Brent at $105.48. The bid came from a US crude draw of 8.56 million barrels for the week to Oct. 9 and from continuing Iranian strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI outpaced Brent because the inventory draw hit domestic barrels directly while Brent could not add to its risk premium above $100.
Fuel oil tells the same supply story. The head of Vitol's Asian operations said Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil exports are running at least 800,000 tons a month below pre-war levels, with producers paying higher freight and risk premiums to move cargoes out of Hormuz. Crude could ease if the strait stays open and the tanker attacks stop, but neither looks settled.
The RFS reallocation
EPA is proposing to restore 100% of the renewable volume lost to additional 2025 small refinery exemptions, which Clean Fuels Alliance America puts at 770 million RINs. The open question is timing. One approach splits the supplemental volume between 2026 and 2027; the other drops the full amount into 2027. Clean Fuels' Kurt Kovarik flagged that the restoration timeline is still unresolved, which matters for anyone pricing biodiesel blends or carrying RIN positions. US ethanol production ran 1.065 million bpd, up 12,000 bpd on the week, with stocks at 23.942 million barrels and exports down 27%.
Couche-Tard buys 50 Irving sites
Circle K parent Alimentation Couche-Tard signed a definitive deal to acquire 50 Irving Oil retail sites in Québec and Ontario. It is a Canadian footprint play, but it signals Couche-Tard is still buying stores while fuel margins carry the business.
What to watch
Whether any Russian diesel barrels actually move under the new deal, and how fast. Whether Ukraine keeps hitting Russian refineries past Trump's objection. And which year EPA lands the 770 million RINs in.