Trump weighs 90-day ban on US diesel exports as diesel hits record highs
President Trump said he is "very seriously" considering a temporary ban on US diesel exports. Diesel is at record highs. A ban would keep barrels home, and Goldman Sachs figures that could pull diesel down by about $0.25 a gallon each week, but only until domestic storage fills up.
The export ban
The reports point to a 90-day suspension. At first the logic is simple: barrels that would have shipped overseas stay home, and prices ease at the rack. Goldman put a rough size on the early relief at roughly a quarter a week.
The problem shows up once tanks are full. Refiners with nowhere to put diesel start cutting run rates, and when runs come down you make less of everything, gasoline included. Goldman warned that a diesel export ban would end up pushing gasoline prices higher. RBN Energy made the same point, laying out a list of unintended and negative consequences from limiting exports. You can already see the crude side pricing it in: WTI was at $94.10, held down by the prospect that a ban forces refiners to slow down and leaves more crude sitting around.
For jobbers and haulers the takeaway is a possible short window of cheaper diesel followed by tighter supply and firmer gasoline. Plan allocation around both halves, not just the first one.
Crude and the war
Brent jumped more than 3% to $107.24 after Trump rejected a peace proposal Iran floated at the UN General Assembly. That added war-risk premium is feeding into product prices too.
The other thread is Russian refineries. Trump said he again pressed Zelensky to scale back Ukraine's strikes on Russian refining, which Trump has tied to the global diesel shortage and record prices. He told reporters Zelensky agreed to probably slow the attacks. If those strikes ease, some Russian diesel capacity could come back over time, which would loosen the global market that is feeding US prices. Nothing about that is fast or certain.
Record diesel at the pump
The pain is already landing on operators. In New Jersey, school bus contractors say diesel costs have roughly doubled, hitting bus companies and the districts that pay them, with older buildings on heating oil facing the same squeeze. Sky News and multiple outlets are reporting diesel at record highs.
Gasoline is a mixed picture by region. Chattanooga pump prices fell about 16 cents a gallon over the past week, while Gainesville saw a one-week increase of nearly 20 cents. Local retail is being set by supply and logistics, not a single national trend.
What to watch
Whether the diesel export ban moves from "considering" to an actual order, and if so how long the 90-day clock really runs. Watch domestic diesel storage: once tanks fill, refiners cut runs, diesel supply tightens, and gasoline firms.
The Iran standoff matters too, and whether Brent holds its recent gains. On Ukraine, if strikes on Russian refineries actually slow, global diesel could get a little breathing room in the weeks ahead.