Diesel jumps 16.6 cents to $5.584, within 25 cents of record as Russian refineries burn
Diesel is up 16.6 cents in the past week to a national average of $5.584 a gallon, per GasBuddy, which puts it within 25 cents of the all-time record. For anyone hauling freight or running delivery routes, that is the number that matters this week. Every gallon in the tank costs more, and the freight rate to move product to your terminals goes up with it.
The cause is upstream, in the crude and the refineries. Crude gained more than 5% last week, and refined-fuel supply is tight because refining capacity is down worldwide while Ukraine keeps hitting Russian plants.
The drone strikes
Ukrainian drones struck a Lukoil refinery in Russia's Perm region, about 1,600 km inside the border, and also hit the Novokuibyshevsk refinery. This is a near-daily campaign now against Russian energy infrastructure. Russia is one of the swing suppliers of refined product to the global market, and every plant taken offline tightens diesel and jet supply that US refiners would otherwise not have to cover. Analysts pointing at your rising pump price keep naming lost Russian refinery capacity as the reason. Reuters is calling it a historic stress test for US refiners, who are running hard to fill the gap.
Crude prices can hold steady while diesel still gets scarce, because the shortage sits in the refineries that turn crude into diesel, not in the crude supply itself.
The Iran sanctions
Oil actually fell Monday even with all of this. WTI dropped 2.16% to $85.18 and Brent slid 2.19% to $92.32 as traders took profits ahead of a new US sanctions package against Iran. Treasury Secretary Bessent's move is being teased as an "economic D-Day," and Iranian crude exports have already dropped with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowing. If those barrels stay off the water, the crude side could firm back up and push diesel higher in an already tight market.
Gasoline mixed
Gasoline is not moving in one direction, which makes hedging your street price harder. Columbus fell 23.7 cents in a week to $4.12, while Pennsylvania rose 9.9 cents to $4.16 and Peoria climbed about 6 cents to $4.31. All three are roughly 70 to 88 cents higher than a year ago. GasBuddy has US pump prices at an August high. The spread between the cheapest and most expensive station in a single state ran as wide as $1.44 in Pennsylvania, so shopping your supply still pays.
The RFS deadline
EPA plans to postpone the 2025 Renewable Fuel Standard compliance deadline. For blenders and obligated parties, that buys time on RIN obligations and could ease some near-term pressure on the paperwork side, though it does nothing for the physical diesel squeeze. Watch for the formal notice with the new date before you change any blending plans.
What to watch
The details of the Bessent sanctions package land next, and whether Iranian barrels actually stay off the market. Watch the diesel average against its record over the next week. If Russian refinery outages keep stacking up while US refiners run flat out, diesel could stay near the top of its range even if crude softens.