US ethanol spot prices fall 4.76% in second week of October as production recovers
US fuel ethanol prices fell 4.76% week-on-week in the second week of October, with softer spot-market sentiment overriding a recovery in domestic production and export activity. For anyone buying gallons to blend, production recovered while buyers pulled back, and the price slipped after a steady September.
The price drop
The EIA has production averaging higher again after the week it tracked, and that extra output landed in a market that had gone quiet on the buy side. More barrels met fewer eager bidders, and the price dropped.
What it means for a jobber blending E10 this month: your ethanol cost eased a little, and if spot stays soft the blend math works slightly in your favor at the rack. September held flat, so this is the first real move in weeks. Watch whether export demand firms up enough to pull the extra production back off the market.
Casselton spill
A farmer dumped a load of sugar beets on Cass County Road 10 near the Casselton ethanol plant late Wednesday night, and the North Dakota Highway Patrol wants to know who. A nearby farmer cleared it with a tractor in about five minutes and the road reopened. Troopers posted a photo of beets scattered across the pavement by the railroad tracks.
No damage to the plant, no supply disruption. It is a reminder that beet and corn traffic around these plants runs heavy this time of year, and the roads take a beating during harvest.
ADM and SAF
Archer Daniels Midland is leaning on its ethanol business to offset weakness in its sweetener segment, per Yahoo Finance. For a company that size, ethanol margins carry real weight in the quarterly numbers, and corn processors turning soft corn syrup demand into fuel-grade gallons is worth tracking if you buy from ADM-linked supply.
GeorgiaSAF said it is moving its sustainable aviation fuel project toward commercial scale. SAF pulls feedstock and credit attention away from road-fuel ethanol over time, so it matters at the margin for anyone watching where low-carbon volume and RIN-style credits flow.
Kawartha Ethanol in Havelock, Ontario, is installing a new wastewater treatment system after a successful pilot. It is a small Canadian plant with no effect on US prices, but it is the kind of capital spend that keeps a facility running.
What to watch
Whether ethanol export demand firms enough to absorb the recovered production, or whether spot keeps sliding into late October. Watch ADM's next earnings read on how much ethanol is actually covering the sweetener gap. And keep an eye on whether the Highway Patrol finds its beet dumper near Casselton.