EIA cuts 2026 renewable diesel forecast to 230,000 barrels a day

The EIA now expects US renewable diesel output to run about 230,000 barrels a day in 2026, a cut from its earlier call. For anyone tracking RIN values or selling into California's LCFS market, that lower number tightens the supply side of the credit math. Less renewable diesel on the ground means fewer D4 RINs generated and fewer LCFS credits, and that feeds into blending economics on the West Coast.

The timing matters. Producers spent two years building RD capacity on the promise of federal and state credits, and the agency pulling its forecast down says some of that capacity may run softer than planned next year. If you buy blended diesel in a credit market, watch your supplier's RIN pass-through.

Ethanol holds

On ethanol, the EIA left its 2026 and 2027 fuel ethanol production forecasts unchanged in the October STEO. No change for corn grind or blending volumes to react to.

Maersk burns corn ethanol

Maersk ran the first US commercial ship-to-ship ethanol bunkering of a deep-sea container vessel, fueling the Tangier Maersk in Houston with US corn ethanol supplied by POET. It is a trial, not a market yet. What it opens is a possible new demand outlet for corn ethanol outside the gasoline pool, where blending has been stuck near the E10 wall for years.

If marine ethanol scales, and that is a real if, it could put a floor under corn ethanol demand that does not depend on another gallon going into cars. The company says the run taught it what infrastructure and permitting a bioethanol marine fuel would need, and how the supply chain would have to work. Houston having the molecules and the terminals already helps.

The India pitch

US grain interests used a September 22 summit in New Delhi to push American maize into India's ethanol and SAF programs, arguing corn should be judged on life cycle carbon rather than treated as imported GM grain. For US producers, India is the demand story that matters more than most foreign items, because it could move export volumes of corn and ethanol. It is talk for now.

What to watch

Whether the EIA trims renewable diesel again in the November STEO, and what that does to D4 RINs. Whether anyone follows Maersk with a second ethanol bunkering, which would turn a one-off into a pattern. And whether the India talks produce an actual purchase commitment or stay a summit headline. Diesel prices, meanwhile, have not fallen despite Trump's moves to boost supply, so do not count on relief at the rack yet.