Brent tops $100 as Houthi strikes hit a second chokepoint; US pump prices up nearly 17 cents in 10 days

Brent crude topped $100 a barrel this week after Yemen's Houthis began striking tankers in the Red Sea, putting a second oil chokepoint at risk just weeks after the US-Iran ceasefire fell apart and Strait of Hormuz traffic got shaky again. The glut the market was pricing in a month ago has evaporated. For US fuel buyers, the cost floor just moved up.

Two chokepoints at risk

Less than a month ago the talk was a looming crude glut as Hormuz tanker traffic recovered under the ceasefire, per OilPrice.com. That did not hold. The ceasefire collapsed and missiles are flying again. Houthi strikes on Red Sea tankers put a second route in play. Two constrained chokepoints at once is what pushed Brent over $100.

Pump prices already moving

Retail gasoline is up nearly 17 cents in 10 days, per 10TV. That move mostly predates the latest Brent run, so the wholesale cost jobbers pay could keep climbing for another week or two as crude works through the system. Diesel usually follows, and with distillate supply tight worldwide, haulers may feel this one harder than gasoline.

Refiners running flat out

US refineries are running near full capacity as global fuel supplies tighten, per Daijiworld. Firm crude plus tight product markets tends to fatten crack spreads, which is good for refiner margins and rough on anyone buying the finished barrel. Near-full utilization also leaves little slack. If a Gulf Coast unit trips now, there is not much cushion to cover it.

Russian capacity hit

Ukrainian forces struck the Chornomornaftogaz gas facility in Crimea and confirmed a hit on the Tyumen refinery, per RBC-Ukraine. Damage to Russian refining and export infrastructure tightens global product balances a little more, and that feeds back into the same benchmarks US buyers price off.

OPEC's July read

OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report for July landed this week. It is worth reading against a $100 print, since the group's demand and supply numbers shape whether OPEC+ looks likely to add barrels and take some heat out of the market.

What to watch

Whether the Houthis keep hitting Red Sea tankers and whether Hormuz stays open. Crude could ease if both routes stay clear and OPEC+ signals more output at its next meeting. Watch wholesale diesel differentials and Gulf Coast run rates over the next two weeks. With US refineries already near the top of their range, a single outage could add to the squeeze fast.