Oil jumps 6% as Iran hits three tankers near Hormuz; Brent hits $78.58, US pulls Iranian crude waiver
Crude jumped about 6% Wednesday after Iran struck three commercial vessels off the Omani coast near the Strait of Hormuz and the US and Iran traded fresh military strikes overnight. Brent traded as high as $78.58 and WTI at $74.76 at the peak, off earlier levels around $76.58 Brent and $72.74 WTI. For US buyers, the move at the rack comes fast even though not a barrel of physical supply has stopped moving yet.
Hormuz
Tanker traffic through the strait stayed thin early Wednesday, with six tankers observed either finishing or starting transits. More owners look to be reconsidering the run toward the chokepoint after the overnight exchange. Nothing is closed. About a fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through Hormuz, so even the fear of a disruption prices in fast, and that is what the tape is showing.
Washington also canceled its sanction waiver for Iranian crude in response to the flare-up. That pulls barrels off the market on paper, and it hardens the standoff. Whether it moves much physical oil depends on who was actually lifting Iranian crude under the waiver and where those barrels go now.
For a jobber, the read is simple. Your next load repriced higher today on headline risk, not on a shortage. If the strait stays open and the tankers keep moving, crude could ease back off the spike as quickly as it ran up.
Russian refining
The quieter story is diesel. Ukraine hit two refineries in Tatarstan overnight, roughly 1,500 km from the front, and reports put another strike on a plant in Saratov that caught fire. Zelenskyy said Ukrainian long-range strikes reached 1,500 km. One report says Russia's largest refinery was halted, with footage circulating.
Russia's oil goes to export as crude fairly easily. Its refined product is the pressure point, and repeated hits on refining capacity are pulling diesel out of the global pool. StoneX flagged that the refinery attacks are quietly pushing up diesel costs. US haulers should watch diesel closely, because a tight global balance shows up in distillate before it shows up in gasoline.
The crack side matters here. Crude and diesel are both bid, but for different reasons: crude on Hormuz fear, diesel on lost Russian refining runs. If diesel outruns crude, refiner margins on the distillate cut widen, which is good for anyone long product and bad for the buyer paying the pump.
What to watch
Watch whether tankers keep transiting Hormuz or start diverting; a real slowdown is the difference between a headline spike and a supply problem. Watch the diesel crack as Russian refinery outages add up. And watch what the canceled Iranian waiver actually removes from the market.