US refining capacity fell more than 250,000 b/cd in 2025 as Trump tells retailers to cut pump prices now

U.S. operable atmospheric distillation capacity totaled 18.2 million barrels per calendar day on January 1, 2026, down over 250,000 b/cd, about 1%, from a year earlier, per the EIA's latest annual Refinery Capacity Report. There is less domestic capacity feeding the market this year.

The capacity cut

A 1% trim sounds small. It matters when refiners are already running hard to meet gasoline and diesel demand. Fewer barrels of distillation capacity leave the system with less slack the next time a unit goes down for a turnaround or an unplanned outage.

For fuel buyers downstream, the cost lands in margins. When capacity tightens and demand holds, refiners keep more of the spread between crude and product, and that gets passed along the rack. It won't reach the pump this week. Over time it raises the baseline cost buyers start from.

Trump's pump-price post

President Trump scolded fuel retailers in a social media post, saying "Gasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY! They're too high considering that Oil is now at $68 a Barrel, and heading south." He told retailers to "DROP YOUR PRICE FOR OUR GREAT AMERICAN PEOPLE," warned "There will be no gauging, which is totally illegal," and said "big problems lie ahead" for retailers who don't react.

Crude at $68 will feed lower wholesale costs eventually, though retail margins are slow to track crude in either direction. Stations buying at yesterday's rack price can't cut today without eating the difference. The post doesn't change the contracts retailers already signed.

Dangote's Libyan barrels

Nigeria recorded its first Libyan crude import as local supply frustrates the Dangote refinery, per Business Insider Africa. The plant is reaching abroad for feedstock because Nigerian crude isn't showing up in the volumes or grades it needs.

The volume is small for now. If Dangote keeps pulling barrels off the Atlantic basin market, it becomes one more buyer competing for the same cargoes U.S. and European refiners want.

What to watch

Whether retail gasoline prices actually ease over the next two weeks as $68 crude works through the rack, and how hard Trump pushes if they don't. Watch refinery utilization rates into summer driving season against that thinner capacity base, and whether Dangote's import is a one-off or the start of steady Atlantic basin buying.