Crude is back near pre-war levels but pump prices haven't followed, and the gap is now a political fight

India's opposition leader Mallikarjun Kharge accused the Modi government of "looting" the public, arguing that retail fuel prices stayed high even as global crude fell back to pre-war levels. The same complaint is showing up well beyond India, with outlets running the basic question over and over: why is petrol still expensive when the barrel got cheaper?

The pump price is crude plus refining margin plus tax plus distribution. When crude drops and the pump doesn't move, the difference doesn't vanish. It sits with refiners as a fatter margin, or with the government as tax it chose not to cut. Crude gets the headlines, but it's usually a small part of what a driver pays. Falling crude only helps the buyer downstream if refiners and tax authorities let it pass through, and right now they aren't.

Refining

Two supply disruptions hit in the same window, and both push margins up.

TotalEnergies flagged a problem at a French refinery after a power cut. Power trips can knock units offline for days even when nothing breaks, because restarting a refinery is slow and cautious work. Less product on the market props up the crack spread.

Russia's Defense Ministry said it targeted an oil refinery it claims Ukrainian forces were using. Strikes on refining capacity, from either side of that war, take product offline directly. Crude that can't get processed never becomes diesel or gasoline, so the gap between raw crude and finished fuel stays wide.

The macro picture has crude falling while the refining picture stays tight. Those two forces pull against each other, which keeps pump prices sticky even as the headline crude number drops.

Expansion

In Ghana, Sentuo Oil Refinery's Phase 2 expansion got attention, with at least one outlet openly asking whether this is real added capacity or another ribbon-cutting that doesn't change throughput. Fair question. New refining capacity in West Africa matters for regional product balances, but it only counts once the units are running and processing barrels.

What to watch

Watch whether any government facing the "crude is down, why isn't fuel" pressure actually cuts fuel tax. It's the fastest path to lower pump prices and the one most often skipped. Watch how long the French unit stays down and whether the power issue spreads. And watch Sentuo Phase 2 for a startup date and real processed volumes.