US natural gas output seen reaching record highs in 2026 and 2027 as global gas squeeze runs into next summer
The International Gas Union says global gas supply looks set to stay tighter than it should be until next summer at least, and US producers are the ones expected to fill the gap. The EIA has US dry gas output reaching record highs in 2026 and 2027. For a jobber, none of that hits the rack tomorrow. It matters slowly, through where the gas ends up.
The export pull
The IGU covers producers accounting for 90% of world gas. When that group calls the market tight into next summer, it is telling you export demand for US gas stays high. Europe is short heading into heating season and Asia wants the same cargoes. More US gas leaving as LNG could keep a floor under domestic prices even while output hits records.
This still doesn't move your gasoline or diesel rack directly. It does touch anyone burning gas to run a terminal or a truck stop, and it feeds the power price behind refrigeration and pumps. Treat it as a cost line, not a fuel supply line.
The North Carolina plant
A judge ruled Duke Energy's gas power plant in North Carolina should not proceed. One plant, one state, and it does not change what comes off your local terminal. It matters because it cuts against the EIA's demand math. The agency has both US gas supply and demand climbing to records this year and next, and that demand assumes new gas generation gets built.
If regulators keep blocking plants while producers keep drilling, more gas backs up for export rather than domestic burn. That extra export flow could hold up the price the rest of us pay indirectly.
What to watch
Whether US LNG export volumes keep climbing through winter, since that is the pipe connecting Europe's shortage to what you pay for gas here. The EIA short-term outlook is the place to catch any cut to its record production call. And watch whether more states follow North Carolina in turning down gas generation, because blocked domestic demand is what frees up cargoes for export.