WTI is at the bottom of its 30-day range

Crude set the tone today. WTI is right at the low end of its 30-day range and down 28.4% over the past month. Its floor for that window is $68.58. Wholesale gasoline told the same story: RBOB is at the exact low of its own 30-day range.

The pump has not caught up yet. U.S. retail gasoline is $3.964, still at 61% of its 30-day range, while the wholesale side it is priced off has fallen to the floor. Retail diesel is $4.668 at 55% of range. So the raw cost of a gallon dropped hard, and street prices are lagging that drop. For a marketer buying cheaper barrels while the pump holds, that gap is margin sitting on the street right now. The 3:2:1 crack backs this up: it is 54.48, wider by 8.94 over 30 days, so refiners are earning more per barrel run.

Diesel is the one exception to the wide-margin read. The retail-wholesale diesel spread is 1.336, down 0.375 over 30 days, so that street margin actually tightened even as gasoline's opened up.

The thing to watch is whether retail follows crude down. With WTI and wholesale gasoline both at their 30-day lows, pump prices could keep sliding to close the gap, which would pull that gasoline margin back toward normal. If crude bounces off this floor instead, the current spread may hold a while longer.