National gas average hits $4.07, highest August on record, as Trump tells drivers to brace for higher prices
The national gas average is $4.07 a gallon, and Trump is telling drivers to get used to it. AAA put out the number Friday, up three cents on the week and, by the group's own account, the highest August average it has on record. The President said Americans should accept higher pump prices as the cost of standing up to Iran, which is holding firm on the Strait of Hormuz. For anyone hauling loads or running a lot, the setup is firm crude and soft demand at the same time, with the White House now adding political cover for expensive gas.
Aldo Vazquez of AAA Mountain West said gasoline demand is down while crude oil is holding pump prices above normal for this time of year. Arizona shows the split plainly, with the Valley average at $4.44 and the state at $4.40. High prices into soft demand is the worst mix for volume-driven operators, and it lands four months out from the midterms, where gas prices are already a live issue.
Global supply gets thinner
Crude is firm for a reason. Rystad cut its Russian production forecast to average 8.95 million bpd in 2026, then fall to around 8.6 million bpd in 2027, blaming a year of tighter sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on refineries, ports and tankers. Those strikes have not stopped. Several Russian regions have reintroduced fuel rationing after renewed hits on their refineries.
That matters here because US refiners are already running hard, in a tighter global fuel market. When domestic plants are near the top of their range, there is little slack to absorb a supply shock somewhere else, and every barrel Russia loses tightens the same seaborne market our importers pull from. If Hormuz stays open and Russian volumes hold, prices could ease. Neither looks settled right now.
Casey's buys in Texas
Casey's is expanding in Texas with another c-store acquisition. The chain has spent the last few years buying its way into new markets, and Texas has been a target. For independents, this is the same pressure that has been building: a well-capitalized buyer with scale on fuel and inside sales keeps setting the price you have to compete against at the pump and on the roller grill. Worth watching who Casey's picks up next and what it pays.
Suburban Propane's wider loss
Suburban Propane reported a wider net loss for its fiscal third quarter, with revenue of $261.38 million and continued seasonal pressure from higher operating costs and softer propane demand. Units are at $17.75, down 11.25% over the past 90 days. Propane haulers and jobbers should read it as confirmation that summer margins are thin and cost discipline is doing the heavy lifting until heating season.
What to watch
Whether Hormuz stays open, and whether Trump's message holds if pump prices keep climbing into the fall. Watch the next AAA print for whether $4.07 was a peak or a step. Watch Russian refinery outages, since more rationing there means a tighter export market feeding US imports. And watch Casey's for the price tag on its Texas deal, a read on what c-store assets are fetching now.