Pump prices hit $4.10 a gallon as the Iran war and new tariffs squeeze drivers

Regular gas is averaging $4.10 a gallon, per AAA, up from $3.16 a year ago. The Iran war is the main driver, and the run-up lands the same week President Trump's new tariffs took effect. On July 24 the administration put duties of 10% to 12.5% on imports from more than 80 countries. Yale's Budget Lab pegs the cost to the average household at about $1,100 a year. For c-store operators that hits twice. Higher pump prices leave customers with less to spend once they walk inside, and inside sales are where the margin is. When more than half the country says it is already stretched on bills, a dollar more at the pump comes straight out of the cooler and the grill.

Murphy USA

Artisan is making a bigger bet on Murphy USA, reading a "favorable profit cycle" as fuel margins firm up under the new management team. The everyday-low-price, high-volume model works when margins cooperate, and right now they are. The risk underneath it has not moved: structurally weaker fuel and cigarette volumes over the long haul. A fund's vote of confidence does not fix soft demand. Murphy also priced $500 million in senior notes due 2034, part of it refinancing $300 million of existing debt, so the balance sheet is in play this quarter alongside the pump.

The Russian strikes

Ukrainian drones hit the Tyumen refinery in Western Siberia on July 25, nearly 2,000 km from the border, and set it on fire. It is one of the deepest strikes on Russian refining so far. The same day, Houthis hit the Aramco refinery at Jizan. And crude still fell, its first down day in a week. Two refineries burned and the barrel dropped anyway, which says supply fear is not setting the price right now. For US jobbers, that makes the pump increase a demand-and-tariff story rather than a crude-shortage one, at least this week. If the deep-strike campaign starts taking real Russian export volume offline, that read could change fast.

Mexico's LNG

Energia Costa Azul shipped its first cargo on July 8, Mexico's second LNG export terminal. The single Phase 1 train adds 0.4 Bcf/d and triples Mexico's export capacity off one project. It sits on the Pacific Coast, the first Mexican terminal there and the second in North America after LNG Canada, pushing Pacific export capacity to 2.2 Bcf/d and shortening the sail to Asian buyers. It will not touch your rack tomorrow. But more North American gas heading offshore is worth tracking if you run propane or price against natural-gas economics.

What to watch

Watch whether the July 24 tariff round filters into freight and packaged-goods costs at the store level over the next few weeks, because that is the part that reaches your P&L after the pump does. Crude is the other one. It held down through two refinery fires, so the open question is whether the deep-strike campaign on Russian plants eventually moves it. Murphy's margin call gets its real test when Q3 numbers land.