National gas average falls to $3.71 as OPEC adds August barrels while Ukraine keeps hitting Russian refineries
Diesel fell in all 50 states last week, and the national gasoline average is $3.71 a gallon, down 6.8 cents. Diesel dropped 11.8 cents. GasBuddy now counts 41 states with gas under $4 and 37 states with diesel under $5. Crude is $68 to $71 a barrel this morning, and OPEC agreed over the weekend to boost production again in August. For jobbers and haulers, that is real cost relief at the rack heading into the week, even with a war a continent away chewing through Russian refining capacity.
The relief is not even everywhere. Minnesota is at $3.59, down 1.5 cents. Ithaca is at $4.31 and still calling it a four-year high despite the drop. Chattanooga went the other way and rose 5 cents. Read your own market, not the national headline.
Russian refineries
Ukraine hit Russian oil refineries nearly 200 times in the first half of 2026, and the pace is climbing. Overnight into July 6, Ukrainian forces struck the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl again, a plant designed to process 15 million tonnes of crude a year, along with the NOVATEK Ust-Luga refinery and oil terminals at Vysotsk and in Crimea. Drones reached Chelyabinsk for the first time.
The Financial Times reported strikes on Russian energy sites are up elevenfold, aided by US intelligence helping Kyiv chart routes around air defenses. Russia has gone from fuel exporter to importer, and Russian outlets are warning of possible diesel shortages in the Kuban region. That lost supply is one reason global product balances stay tight even as OPEC pumps more crude. Watch whether the added OPEC barrels can offset refined-product losses, because the bottleneck right now is refining, not crude.
Hormuz fees
Iran has started floating new charges on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, days into the 60-day agreement that paused the fighting with the US and Israel. Tehran calls them fees. The Trump administration says they are not tolls. Roughly 20 million barrels of oil move through the strait daily, about 20% of global consumption and around 25% of all seaborne crude trade. Any cost added at that chokepoint could work its way into landed crude prices for US refiners over the coming weeks, which would eventually show up at the rack.
The supply pipeline
Two items point the other way on price. Iraq restored oil output to pre-war levels at three major fields, adding barrels back to the market. And the US is set for about $4 billion of crude oil project kickoffs in the third quarter, per Industrial Info Resources. New supply returning from sites that had stopped output, plus OPEC's August add, is the bearish case that has pump prices sliding this week.
What to watch
The push and pull is simple. OPEC barrels, Iraqi output, and softer crude are pulling US pump prices down now. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining and possible Hormuz fees are the risks that could firm things back up if either escalates. For c-store operators, falling prices tend to lift fuel margin and gallons at the same time, so watch your street pricing against costs that are dropping faster than the sign. Next markers: how far OPEC actually delivers on the August increase, and whether Russian product losses start moving diesel benchmarks.