Gas prices set to be second-highest on record for July 4 as the DOJ probe opens
Drivers face the second-most expensive July 4 on record at the pump, even with gasoline falling for several weeks running. AAA-style forecasts cited by MyStateline and others put the holiday average near an all-time high. The squeeze gave President Trump's new Justice Department inquiry into gasoline pricing its political fuel, with Transport Topics confirming the order to investigate.
Refinery fires
Three refinery incidents hit at once, and that matters more for supply than any single price headline. A fire at a Delaware County refinery injured three people and triggered a shelter-in-place that was later lifted. Separately, a fire broke out at the Delta-owned refinery that supplies about 75 percent of the airline's jet fuel, and Monroe Energy's Trainer plant in Pennsylvania had a blaze that crews put out. Each outage pulls product off a market that was finally loosening.
The war premium
Russia's fourth-largest oil refinery shut down after a Ukrainian drone strike, Reuters reported. Strikes on Russian refining keep removing distillate and gasoline from the global pool, which works against the recent price relief. The market has shrugged so far, with crude soft and U.S. supply ample, yet the run of outages is getting hard to ignore.
Supply and deals
The EIA said Permian natural gas output is rising faster than crude, a shift that feeds cheaper feedstock and NGL volumes. On the deal side, Snap-on bought Diesel Laptops for $100 million, a bet on heavy-duty truck repair tools, and Bain Capital neared a stake in Volkswagen's diesel engine unit. Nevada pump prices fell for a fifth straight week, tracking the national slide.
What to watch
The tension into July is real: pump prices near a record on the calendar while crude and wholesale soften underneath. Refinery fires and Russian strikes are the upside risk for product prices, so watch distillate and gasoline cracks for the first sign supply is tightening. The DOJ inquiry adds noise, though it is unlikely to change a cent at the pump by the holiday.