Trump ties permanent year-round E15 to a Kansas Senate seat, says no deal if the Democrat wins
President Trump told a rally in Park City, Kansas on Monday that nationwide year-round E15 happens only if Republican Sen. Roger Marshall keeps his seat. "I also gave Kansas a waiver to sell E15 all year round. And with Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year round E15 permanent. But if Adam Hamilton is in, I'm not doing it," he said. For jobbers who have spent years waiting on a permanent fix to the summer RVP block, that is a promise with a condition attached to one race.
The waiver mechanics still matter more than the pledge. E15 has moved on annual emergency waivers and state-level workarounds, and retailers have had to guess each spring whether they can keep the blend in the ground through summer. A permanent rule would let a c-store commit to the tankage and the signage without redoing the math every April. Marshall is on the ballot in 2026, so nothing changes at the pump before then.
Trump also said USDA will make $8 billion available for one-time payments to farmers this harvest to cover market disruption and higher input costs. That is corn-grower relief, and corn demand is ethanol demand, so it feeds back to plant margins eventually.
Zeldin at the plant
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and Rep. Ashley Hinson toured an ethanol plant, per the Dyersville Commercial. The optics line up with the E15 talk, and the industry will want Zeldin's EPA to turn rally language into a rulemaking rather than another seasonal waiver. Watch whether a proposed rule actually appears on the agenda.
45Z and margins
CoBank's Oct. 7 quarterly report flagged the 45Z clean fuel production credit and existing fuel mandates as the swing factors on biofuel demand, and it noted higher fuel prices are squeezing the farm supply chain. The 45Z credit rewards lower carbon intensity, so plants chasing it are the ones investing in capture and feedstock sourcing. If input and fuel costs keep climbing, some of that credit gets eaten before it reaches the bottom line.
Green Plains
Green Plains launched a program called Farm Forward on Oct. 19 aimed at its corn supply chain. The detail in the wire was thin, but it fits the pattern of producers tying grower relationships to carbon-intensity scoring ahead of 45Z claims.
What to watch
The Marshall race decides whether the E15 pledge turns into a permanent rule or stays a campaign line. Look for any EPA rulemaking out of Zeldin's office that would survive past a single summer. And watch how the $8 billion in USDA payments lands with corn growers, since that flows back to plant economics and blend demand.