US biodiesel exports fell 66% in August as imports rose, USDA data show
US biodiesel exports dropped to 21,676 metric tonnes in August, down 66% from July and 39% from a year earlier, while imports climbed over the same month. That's from USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data that Biodiesel Magazine reported on October 6. For a US jobber, more imported gallons landing while domestic product stays home means foreign supply is taking a bigger share of the blend pool, and that competition shows up in RIN economics before it shows up anywhere else.
Canada took almost all of what did leave. Of the August exports, 20,442.9 tonnes went north, with Peru at 701.7 and Indonesia at 247.1 trailing far behind. The whole month's export book was worth $41.22 million, down from $63.17 million in July. Seven countries bought anything at all.
Ethanol and crush demand
The demand side looks firm. USDA put corn use for alcohol and other purposes at 528 million bushels in August, up 4% from a year earlier, with fuel ethanol alone eating 478 million bushels, also up 4%. Against July the processing total slipped by less than 1%, so this is steady rather than surging.
Soybean crush ran 210 million bushels in August, up from 198 million a year earlier, around 6% higher. That came off a stronger July, when crushers ran 222 million bushels, so the month-to-month line eased. Crude soybean oil production was 2.45 billion pounds.
The reason that matters to anyone selling diesel: soybean oil is the main feedstock for biodiesel and renewable diesel, and strong crush keeps the pipeline fed. Biofuel producers pulled record monthly soybean oil volumes earlier in the summer, which is also why the glycerine market opened October firm. Glycerine is a biodiesel co-product, so when biodiesel runs hard, glycerine supply follows and prices track the same story.
Red-dyed diesel
Roll Call reported that a red-dyed diesel order looks unlikely to pull down high prices for off-road and farm users. Red-dye is the tax-exempt, off-highway product, so anyone running reefer units, farm equipment, or construction fleets is watching whether relief on paper turns into relief at the pump. On the current read, it may not.
What to watch
Whether the August import-export flip holds into the fall, or whether it was a one-month swing tied to timing. If imports keep running ahead of exports, domestic producers could feel it in margins and RIN values. Watch the next FAS release for direction, and watch soybean oil prices, since that feedstock line sets the floor under biodiesel and renewable diesel both.