Iowa moved 46 million gallons of E15 in August; IRFA says it's on pace to pass E10 in 2026
Iowa pumped more than 46 million gallons of E15 in August, the second-highest monthly total on record, according to fuel tax data from the Iowa Department of Revenue. The Iowa Renewable Fuels Association says that puts the 15 percent blend on track to pass E10 as the state's top-selling fuel in 2026.
That August figure matters to jobbers and c-store operators more than any stock call this week. E15 was a niche product a few years ago. One state now moves it by the tens of millions of gallons a month, and the growth comes from more retailers offering it rather than a new mandate.
Iowa E15
"It will be close, but E15 is on track to become Iowa's top-selling fuel for 2026," said IRFA Executive Director Monte Shaw. His argument is simple: as more Iowa retailers give drivers the pump, the volume follows.
Iowa isn't the whole country, and it has advantages other states lack. It offers its own incentives for higher blends, and its corn supply sits behind a retail base that moved to E15 early. Even so, when a full state flips its best-seller from E10 to E15, it shows other operators what the blend can do at the pump once the equipment is in place and the price gap holds. The spread between E15 and E10 is what pulls drivers over, and that spread depends on ethanol staying cheap against gasoline.
Watch whether the August pace holds through winter, when E15 sales normally soften on volatility rules and colder demand.
Alto Ingredients
Alto Ingredients has now posted four straight profitable quarters, according to a Seeking Alpha analysis published this week. The producer spent years on choppy results, and the writer argues the market has not yet priced in that the turnaround might stick.
Take the stock call with the usual caution. It is one analyst's opinion, disclosed as an unpaid piece with no position in the name. What's worth an operator's attention is what sits under the call: a mid-size ethanol producer stringing together consecutive winning quarters points to margins that have steadied after a rough stretch. Crush economics that support a producer's bottom line tend to show up later in what jobbers pay for gallons.
Four quarters is a good run, but not enough to count on. Ethanol margins have burned plenty of producers who looked stable right before corn or the RIN market moved against them.
What to watch
Whether Iowa's E15 share actually crosses E10 in the 2026 full-year tally, and whether the summer volume survives the winter blend switch. On the producer side, whether Alto can carry the margin run into a fifth quarter, and where RIN values and the crush spread sit heading into the fall.