Biodiesel demand pushes soybean oil to a 4-year high
Soybean oil hit a four-year high this week, and the reason is biodiesel. Farm Progress tied the run straight to demand from the renewable fuels side, now the heaviest single buyer on the bean oil complex. When the fuel mandate takes the feedstock, food and export buyers have to pay up to compete. Crushers have been waiting for this, and it is showing up in the price.
India calls E20 an experiment
India's government told its Supreme Court that 20% ethanol blending is still an experiment, with real results not expected until next year. The Centre defended the E20 program while conceding it is still being evaluated, which is a cautious thing to say after already rolling it out nationwide. ChiniMandi and NDTV Profit both ran the same line: the policy stands, but the verdict is pending.
The court also ordered status quo on a Karnataka High Court direction that would have reopened the ethanol allocation process for supply year 2025-26. So quotas stay put for now. No reshuffle of who gets how much cane and grain alcohol, at least until the case moves again.
For anyone watching whether New Delhi backs off blending, the government's own framing matters. Calling it an experiment leaves room to slow down if the data comes back bad next year. Distillers and sugar mills should not count on the ramp staying on schedule.
The RFS poll
The Renewable Fuels Association put out a new poll showing Americans strongly support the Renewable Fuel Standard and want energy independence. Take it for what it is: an industry group polling on its own program and finding the public agrees. It still gives the RFA something to wave in front of EPA and Congress while the next round of volume rules gets argued.
45Z and marine fuel
Bracewell released an explainer video on Section 45Z and the RFS as they touch marine fuel policy. The clean fuel production credit and the blending mandate are starting to reach shipping, and Heinrich Wegener joined the Global Ethanol Association to push ethanol as a marine fuel. It is moving slowly.
Raízen reported restructuring progress and efficiency gains that offset a rough stretch in sugar and ethanol markets. The big Brazilian producer is leaning on lower costs while those markets stay weak.
What to watch
Whether soybean oil holds its gains depends on how firm biodiesel demand stays into the back half of the year. India's experiment language is the bigger flag: if next year's results disappoint, the blending ramp could stall. And watch the EPA's next RFS volumes, where the RFA poll is meant to land.